What (would) change in the property market as a result of the crisis?
What has changed and what will change in the future, what will remain in the minds of investors and developers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) after the crisis in the property market? These issues discussed in the panel participants, dedicated to the most significant changes as a result of reduced property values due to the crisis, while real estate exhibition Real Vienna, conducted with the participation of media Investor.bg.
According to them the most significant change is in the minds of investors and entrepreneurs in the market that are currently reluctant to take significant action.
According to Catherine dates, managing director of TPA Horwath, in Bulgaria and Romania have reported the largest declines, as people consider them to be the most risky and have lost confidence in them.
The general opinion of participants is that long-term markets in the region still pose potential, though currently speculative investments have disappeared and will not return to the market in the form known before the crisis.
According to Martin Roth, managing director of Immobilien Rating GmbH, in terms of confidence and value, the markets have gone back 10 years and was not reasonably be expected to recover within a year.
He commented that demonstrates confidence crisis is the decline in shares of companies in the sector of real estate. He believes that while the collapse of the shares of an airline such as Sky Europe is to explain, the same can be said for real estate companies.
"If an airline has large debts and can not serve them, it went bankrupt. A real estate company still has property to secure debt, "he said, adding that the drop in share prices in the sector is more a result of loss of confidence than a real decline in business.
Herwig Toyfelsdorfar, Board of Hypo Real Invest, said that this is understandable because in the investment world often traded more confidence, image and perception than a real business.
He also was before the crisis, when 80% of the funded projects were not secured by real businesses and assets.
"It's a bit like the casino," he said.
However, participants in the discussion expressed the opinion that all property is much more realistic and safe as investors traded with physical assets, even if they lose part of its value, can be used for living, to sell be leased, etc.
Toyfelsdorfar said that investors have learned enough over the next 2-3 years, but according to him in the long run things have not changed dramatically and most people will act the same way as before the crisis.
According to those with longer-term memory can benefit from lessons due to the crisis, but overall greed will continue to rule the market.
"So in the coming years things can be repeated cycles will shorten and people will become greedy again, provided that the market there is money to be invested at any cost," he said.
Overall, however, prices will not rise as fast as before the crisis, which to some extent will ensure sustainability.
Roth said that sustainability has two aspects, which will play an increasingly important role in the future. On the one hand, it is associated with long-term income, rents, risk assessment. Second, it makes sense to "green" construction and all aspects in this regard. He believes that this second factor will become increasingly important and will have an increasing impact on the value of assets.
Carbon emissions from buildings in the future will be penalized the same way as it is today in automobiles and refrigerators, so the value is related to more factors than just hard facts, he said. Thus, evaluators and other market players to establish a methodology by which to make measurable other, intangible factors that will exert increasing influence on the asset.
Published on 2010-09-07 15:52:52
Source: Investor.bg
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